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Jul 15, 2026
Armenia moves West, Georgia moves East
What next for The Caucasus?
Summary
Armenia just re-elected populist PM Nikol Pashinyan, confirming voters are ready to move on from the lost Karabakh war and lean toward Europe over Russia. Jason talks with Thomas de Waal, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and author of a leading book on the Caucasus, to explain how Armenia got here and what it means for the wider region.
We dig into the deep split inside Armenia between Pashinyan's vision of a smaller, normalised state and the diaspora's lingering territorial claims, drawing a comparison to Israel's own internal divides. We also cover Georgia's slide back toward Moscow under billionaire ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Finally, we look at the Trump-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan transit deal, awkwardly named "TRIPP" after the president, and ask whether it's real American statecraft or just opportunism, what it costs Georgia and Iran, and what Israel might learn from Armenia's experience of losing a war when its only patron failed to show up.
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